First Contact Soon

A scientist announced today that there are 300 sextillion stars in the universe. Now assuming that one out of every two star has planets circling it, which is what astronomers are finding in the solar systems near us, then there are an estimated 150 sextillion star systems in the universe and some 750 sextillion planets in the universe.

Assuming that there is one earth-like planet in every 500 (which is what scientists are finding), then there are 1.5 sextillion earth-like planets in the universe.

Science has found on Earth, life is pervasive and tenacious. It is therefore logical to assume that there is life of at least primitive forms on half of these planets or on about 750 quintillion planets. If we assume that only 1 out of 1000 of these planets has intelligent life at the level of at least a dog, then there are 750 quadrillion planets which have intelligent life.

Now, if we assume that 1 out of 1,000,000 of those planets which have intelligent life have developed civilization, then there are 750 billion planets that have civilization. Now, if we also assume that of the planets which are civilized one in one million have obtained space flight then there are 750,000 planets which have obtained space flight.

Now assuming that one out of four of these 750,000 civilizations that have obtained space flight are looking for us, then there are 187,500 civilizations that are looking for us.

Assuming that only one in ten thousand civilizations that are looking for us will find us in the next 100 years, then 19 civilizations will find us in the next 100 years. Therefore there will be about one contact every six years in the next 100 years. Knowing our government and seeing the impressive evidence for at least some UFO contact, our government has been in contact with alien civilizations for about 50 years and makes contact with a new species every six years.

First contact with someone other than the government is inevitable and should occur in the next six years. Shall I predict that first contact will occur on December 21, 2012? Seems as reasonable as any other time.